Canadians looking to the U.S. for signs of meaningful economic recovery got a bit of bad news yesterday. A new study, by David H. Papell and Ruxandra Prodan of the University of Houston, reports that the downturn following the Great Recession could stretch out into the fourth quarter of 2016. The prediction is based on a study of financial crises and recessions since the Great Depression of the 1930s. If it’s correct, the Americans have not yet reached the halfway mark.

The Statistical Behavior of GDP after Financial Crises and Severe Recessions notes that while the U.S. recession officially ran from December 2007 to June 2009, the recovery has been weak and unemployment has remained high. Canada’s track record is more positive of course, but the U.S. difficulties continue to act as a drag on our turnaround.

Three highlights from the abstract:

• As bad as this feels, the Great Depression was many times worse. Unemployment reached 25.2% in 1933, compared to a 10% jobless rate in 2009. Between 1929 and 1933, U.S. gross national product (GNP) dropped 33.6%. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell just 5.3% during the Great Recession. (Gross national product was the U.S.’s chief measure of economic activity before 1991. The difference between GNP and GDP is that the former includes the output of all a country’s enterprises, regardless of whether or not they’re located domestically. GDP measures activity inside a country.)

• The U.S. economy suffered a 12-year slump following the Great Depression. There have been four serious bank-triggered financial crises that caused recessions in developed countries since: Norway in 1987, Finland in 1991, Sweden in 1991 and Japan in 1992. These were followed by economic slumps that lasted 4 ¾, 8 ½, 9 ½ and 10 ¾ years respectively. Add to that list a 7 ¼-year slump in Denmark and a 7 ¾-year slump in Australia. The average for these downturns is about nine years.

• Earlier this year, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made news when he said “I do not expect the long-run growth potential of the U.S. economy to be materially affected by the crisis and the recession if – and I stress if – our country takes the necessary steps to secure that outcome.” This new study backs him up. In the long-term, there is no negative impact on potential GDP.