Today's economy

The Great Recession that wasn’t

By Kevin Press, BrighterLife.ca

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We know more about the nature and extent of the 2008-2009 downturn, thanks to a new report from Statistics Canada. It hit hard and fast, but in the end, it was more like the three previous recessions than its “Great Recession” moniker suggests.

“[T]he recession in 2008-2009, though quicker to reach bottom, was similar to, or less pronounced than, those in earlier cycles,” reports Statistics Canada. “Moreover, the more severe contractions in financial markets in 2008 were not reflected in the real economy.”

Here’s a quick summary:

  • Stock, commodity and exchange markets fell more sharply than they did during the 1981-82, early 1990s and 2001 downturns.
  • Commodity prices fell 50% over an eight-month period. That was a steep, short downturn by historical standards.
  • The Canadian dollar went from near-parity with the U.S. dollar down to 79 cents between May 2008 and March 2009. That 21% drop was more than twice that seen in each of the last three corrections.
  • The Toronto Stock Exchange reached a high in June 2008, and then tumbled for nine months. By early March 2009, the TSX/Standard & Poor’s composite had fallen 45%. Again, this was a sharp, quick drop compared to the three previous downturns.
  • Quarterly real gross domestic product (GDP) came down 3.6% during the recession. It fell 3.4% in 1990-91 and 4.9% in 1981-82. Remarkably, about two-thirds of that drop came between November 2008 and January 2009.
  • Employment fell 2.3% this time around, compared to 3.4% in 1990-92 and 5.4% in 1981-82. Almost all of the losses came during a terrible four-month period that stretched from November 2008 to February 2009.

Of course, The Great Recession has been largely a U.S. media term. And the experience south of the border has been far more severe. Statistics Canada’s report explains that the two recessions differed in an important way. Canadians saw a decline in the prices of its goods, driven largely by the drop in commodity prices. Americans saw its volumes of output drop, which is to say the economy produced less. That explains the more dramatic unemployment rate in the U.S., and why the recovery there is taking longer. “[P]rice changes are more easily reversed than changes in output,” reports Statistics Canada.

“Price changes were a key difference between the recessions in the United States and Canada,” reads the report. “In the United States, the 3.8% contraction in real GDP through the second quarter of 2009 was slightly larger than that in the previous two recessions. U.S. nominal GDP fell by only 2.4% in the latest recession, implying that prices rose 1.5%, a marked contrast to the record drop in Canada’s prices.”

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